So I've been thinking a lot about localization lately - of services,
production, creativity, etc. I'm beginning to develop a theory that
business models that embrace localization or at a minimum, distributed
localization, will prove out as winners in the next stage of economic
growth. [This theory is entirely a layman's theory, based upon my
observations and readings]
The primary drivers I see in the development of this trend are the end of cheap oil (transportation, agriculture & climate/carbon), the gradual equalization of labor (costs and skillsets) and the explosion of communications and knowledge sharing capabilities.
1) The end of cheap oil: cheap oil has fueled everything from the rise of suburbia to the rise of plastic to the over dependence upon commodity crops by agriculture in the US. But the era of cheap oil is grinding to an end despite the fact that prices have dropped precipitously with the current downturn. Global warming concerns are combining with growing demand from "developing" nations to make demands competitive with supply and increase the need for alternative energy sources. At the same time, global food production has reached a turning point wherein the policies of oil fueled cheap calories are meeting resistance in both "developed" and "developing nations. All of these pieces are conspiring / will conspire to make the cost benefit ratio supporting the transportation of non-specialty resources to distant markets less and less viable.
2) The gradual equalization of labor: the trend started by outsourcing is rapidly forcing a complete change in the way that we think about distributed labor. As economies mature, the cost advantages in outsourcing production labor to "developing" economies are disappearing. Not only are workers demanding greater wages in "developing" economies, but they are also seeking to localize the management of said production by starting small business and companies as an alternative to working directly for multi-nationals. The multi-nationals are encouraging this for obvious reasons as such localization continues to ensure their supply while reducing their risk (in the short term.) Their long term risk of course is that the local companies will begin competing directly with them in the open market if not multi-nationally, than locally and regionally.
3)The explosion of communications and knowledge sharing capabilities: this trend has not only enable the outsourcing of production, but the outsourcing of service industry as well. But furthermore, it has enabled the formation of teams that are not location specific, that are tied by common goals and projects rather than location. The explosion of social communication tools (aka social networks) has further accelerated this movement, allowing for the connection of people around common ideas and goals while letting them live in locations that provide the personal contact they desire (whether family, community or career.) People to people contact continues to be enabled across greater distances and gaps both physical and cultural, changing the way companies and teams and communities operate and thrive.
The final undercurrent to all of this is a human need for connection and recognition. Connection with the providers of our products, with the people we work with, with people with like minds, etc. Connection with those we eat with, those that provide our food, those that we get products from. Recognition for our actions, recognition for our labor recognition for our creativity. Globalization, both physical and virtual, has opened our eyes to potential, and the more it progresses, the more people will be connected to that potential, and the more will strive for it. Often times they will find their opportunties to be greater within a community, whether local or distributed.
I think that over the next period, specialty products, creative capital and raw materials will drive trade. Commodity finished products will localize. Agriculture will localize. Systems and Knowledge management will likely become even more distributed, and there will be a "global economy" formed by the trade of information rather than the trade of cheap goods. Again - this is all just a very "young" theory in my mind, but one that I'm forming several business concepts around and that I see success and potential in already.
A few inspirations:
Experience Matters Blog, David Armano - Coming Full Circle: Humanity Is The New Technology
NYTimes Magazine, Michael Pollan - Farmer In Chief
The primary drivers I see in the development of this trend are the end of cheap oil (transportation, agriculture & climate/carbon), the gradual equalization of labor (costs and skillsets) and the explosion of communications and knowledge sharing capabilities.
1) The end of cheap oil: cheap oil has fueled everything from the rise of suburbia to the rise of plastic to the over dependence upon commodity crops by agriculture in the US. But the era of cheap oil is grinding to an end despite the fact that prices have dropped precipitously with the current downturn. Global warming concerns are combining with growing demand from "developing" nations to make demands competitive with supply and increase the need for alternative energy sources. At the same time, global food production has reached a turning point wherein the policies of oil fueled cheap calories are meeting resistance in both "developed" and "developing nations. All of these pieces are conspiring / will conspire to make the cost benefit ratio supporting the transportation of non-specialty resources to distant markets less and less viable.
2) The gradual equalization of labor: the trend started by outsourcing is rapidly forcing a complete change in the way that we think about distributed labor. As economies mature, the cost advantages in outsourcing production labor to "developing" economies are disappearing. Not only are workers demanding greater wages in "developing" economies, but they are also seeking to localize the management of said production by starting small business and companies as an alternative to working directly for multi-nationals. The multi-nationals are encouraging this for obvious reasons as such localization continues to ensure their supply while reducing their risk (in the short term.) Their long term risk of course is that the local companies will begin competing directly with them in the open market if not multi-nationally, than locally and regionally.
3)The explosion of communications and knowledge sharing capabilities: this trend has not only enable the outsourcing of production, but the outsourcing of service industry as well. But furthermore, it has enabled the formation of teams that are not location specific, that are tied by common goals and projects rather than location. The explosion of social communication tools (aka social networks) has further accelerated this movement, allowing for the connection of people around common ideas and goals while letting them live in locations that provide the personal contact they desire (whether family, community or career.) People to people contact continues to be enabled across greater distances and gaps both physical and cultural, changing the way companies and teams and communities operate and thrive.
The final undercurrent to all of this is a human need for connection and recognition. Connection with the providers of our products, with the people we work with, with people with like minds, etc. Connection with those we eat with, those that provide our food, those that we get products from. Recognition for our actions, recognition for our labor recognition for our creativity. Globalization, both physical and virtual, has opened our eyes to potential, and the more it progresses, the more people will be connected to that potential, and the more will strive for it. Often times they will find their opportunties to be greater within a community, whether local or distributed.
I think that over the next period, specialty products, creative capital and raw materials will drive trade. Commodity finished products will localize. Agriculture will localize. Systems and Knowledge management will likely become even more distributed, and there will be a "global economy" formed by the trade of information rather than the trade of cheap goods. Again - this is all just a very "young" theory in my mind, but one that I'm forming several business concepts around and that I see success and potential in already.
A few inspirations:
Experience Matters Blog, David Armano - Coming Full Circle: Humanity Is The New Technology
NYTimes Magazine, Michael Pollan - Farmer In Chief
So the MadMen characters' Twitter accounts were turned back on after a bit of confusion last weekend. It appears that AMC's online marketing team at Deep Focus chatted with the AMC team and convinced them that "everything was cool". As much as it is being argued that these are "fan generated" they do seem to have an amazingly coherent voice with the show and one wonders if they might not in fact be agency/production/marketing generated. No matter, they are an interesting experiment/extension and I'm interested to see how they evolve and survive over time.
That all said, there does seem to be an expansion of the number of characters twittering, including several that one has to question the "reality" of them actually using twitter. Would Betty Draper (@bettydraper) or Francine Hanson (@francine_hanson) have really used twitter? One of the nice things about the usage within the agency was the rate of adoption and difference in usage patterns. To suddenly have the crew of characters from outside that community join and adopt in full force makes me wonder about the faithfulness of the adoption to the character profiles. Betty's character is not exactly prone to discussing things in public -- at a minimum her account should have been set to private, a bit of a party line that you'd have to ask to join.
But this is a grand experimental world we're all playing in, so I can't fault those behind this experiment too much. It will be interesting to see how this all resolves.
The other odd thing from this is the appearance of several Twitter accounts of real but deceased individuals from the MadMen era. Bill Bernback has appeared as (@billbernbach) with tweets referencing Don Draper. This is a bit of a tread into dangerous territory, especially if it is agency/marketer conducted, as the estate of Bernbach and the current DDB Legal team probably have some serious issues with this.
So where does the line get drawn?
All things to ponder for the lawyers and practitioners...and all things I will ponder here in the coming weeks.
Thoughts?
That all said, there does seem to be an expansion of the number of characters twittering, including several that one has to question the "reality" of them actually using twitter. Would Betty Draper (@bettydraper) or Francine Hanson (@francine_hanson) have really used twitter? One of the nice things about the usage within the agency was the rate of adoption and difference in usage patterns. To suddenly have the crew of characters from outside that community join and adopt in full force makes me wonder about the faithfulness of the adoption to the character profiles. Betty's character is not exactly prone to discussing things in public -- at a minimum her account should have been set to private, a bit of a party line that you'd have to ask to join.
But this is a grand experimental world we're all playing in, so I can't fault those behind this experiment too much. It will be interesting to see how this all resolves.
The other odd thing from this is the appearance of several Twitter accounts of real but deceased individuals from the MadMen era. Bill Bernback has appeared as (@billbernbach) with tweets referencing Don Draper. This is a bit of a tread into dangerous territory, especially if it is agency/marketer conducted, as the estate of Bernbach and the current DDB Legal team probably have some serious issues with this.
So where does the line get drawn?
- Is impersonating fictional characters as a fan "OK" in the name of audience engagement?
- Does it matter if there is a formal agency or producer approval?
- Does said approval need to be public?
- What about impersonating figures from history?
- Is the situation different if the impersonation is related to a commercial project vs a non-profit or personal project?
- Is it any different if the figure is from long ago vs recent history (think Charlemagne vs JFK)?
All things to ponder for the lawyers and practitioners...and all things I will ponder here in the coming weeks.
Thoughts?
So it turns out that AMC was not behind the MadMen Twitters - or at least in any kind of approved methodology. They've sent Twitter a DMCA complaint about the accounts, and several are already pulled: @don_draper & @peggyolson.
I think that this is an epic FAIL on the part of AMC...the presence of the characters had created an interaction with a selection of fans on Twitter, and more importantly had lead to nothing but positive buzz. Said buzz has likely already impacted search and other marketing mediums outside of twitter. Once again a company seems to have made the knee jerk legal team reaction when they could have brought the fan efforts into the fold. That is assuming that it is a fan effort and not from a member of the content team that failed to inform legal or marketing.
Heads up came from venture beat: http://url.ie/n5w
I think that this is an epic FAIL on the part of AMC...the presence of the characters had created an interaction with a selection of fans on Twitter, and more importantly had lead to nothing but positive buzz. Said buzz has likely already impacted search and other marketing mediums outside of twitter. Once again a company seems to have made the knee jerk legal team reaction when they could have brought the fan efforts into the fold. That is assuming that it is a fan effort and not from a member of the content team that failed to inform legal or marketing.
Heads up came from venture beat: http://url.ie/n5w
The team from MadMen is bringing some of the characters to life on Twitter... @don_draper, @joan_holloway, @peggyolson, @pete_campbell & @bertram_cooper have all joined over the last few days...
The interesting thing is not just that the twitters are very well done and in character, but that the order in which characters have joined, and the way they tweet is very much in line with the way that Twitter seems to grow through groups and organizations. Having been the first one at my last agency on Twitter, and then having followed the ebb and flow of usage throughout the organization over time, the SterlingCooper twitter adoption rate seems spot on.
To me, this is a perfect example of how to bring the art of storytelling to life in interactive space. Study the medium you are going to work in, and use it the way that real people use it. You wouldn't shoot footage of someone doing something completely unreal in a TV or Movie Drama, don't force your characters to behave in an unreal way on Twitter or any other social media platform.
And just like in any form of entertainment -- the more attention you pay to the little details, the more real it will become to your audience, and them more engaged they will become. The medium changes what those details should be, but not the fact that there should be details, and that they need to be right.
The interesting thing is not just that the twitters are very well done and in character, but that the order in which characters have joined, and the way they tweet is very much in line with the way that Twitter seems to grow through groups and organizations. Having been the first one at my last agency on Twitter, and then having followed the ebb and flow of usage throughout the organization over time, the SterlingCooper twitter adoption rate seems spot on.
To me, this is a perfect example of how to bring the art of storytelling to life in interactive space. Study the medium you are going to work in, and use it the way that real people use it. You wouldn't shoot footage of someone doing something completely unreal in a TV or Movie Drama, don't force your characters to behave in an unreal way on Twitter or any other social media platform.
And just like in any form of entertainment -- the more attention you pay to the little details, the more real it will become to your audience, and them more engaged they will become. The medium changes what those details should be, but not the fact that there should be details, and that they need to be right.
Anyvite - a replacement for evite without all the crap...and with rsvp from email, im notifications and all sorts of other goodies. To make things more interesting, anyvite seems to pull profile info of unknown users from the web (via google?) filling out your invite with details on attendees as you build it. Hopefully it will start gaining some critical mass and supplanting some of the evite mess.
http://anyvite.com/
outside.in - local news, conversations and happenings. Hmm - will this incorporate enough of a mix of consumer reported items with mainstream news feeds to make it different and valuable? It has serious potential.
http://outside.in
the oddball of the week:
MyBlackBook - ever wanted to analyze your sex life or lack thereof? never been keen on the fact that your little black book could fall into someone's hands? now you can do it online in a secure environment... but if you do, you probably qualify as overly obsessive in more ways than one and should perhaps pursue a career with Vivid or the like in the talent management office.
https://secure.myblackbook.org/
http://anyvite.com/
outside.in - local news, conversations and happenings. Hmm - will this incorporate enough of a mix of consumer reported items with mainstream news feeds to make it different and valuable? It has serious potential.
http://outside.in
the oddball of the week:
MyBlackBook - ever wanted to analyze your sex life or lack thereof? never been keen on the fact that your little black book could fall into someone's hands? now you can do it online in a secure environment... but if you do, you probably qualify as overly obsessive in more ways than one and should perhaps pursue a career with Vivid or the like in the talent management office.
https://secure.myblackbook.org/
A neat new service out there, moFuse makes a mobile version of a blog complete with QR code... Not that anyone is necessarily going to want to read my blog on their mobile, but there are plenty of other folks blogs that I already read on my iPhone and that I may switch to reading in MoFuse format.
What's really neat about this is that tools and services like this are exploding, based upon the similar explosion of consumer generated content and the consumption thereof. I'm sure MoFuse will have plenty of competition shortly and also am wondering what their business model will be. But for now, I'm impressed.
This post owes huge props and credit to David Armano. We had a bit of a twitter conversation the other day around a few of the diagrams he has posted about his use of social media and twitter. You may remember them:
Social Systems
Twitter + Your "Far Outer Circle"
After our conversation I looked over David's diagrams and posts again, and decided to create a usage map template using myself as a guinea pig. The idea behind the hybrid model is that an experience designer or planner could build out a model for each person/profile that they were modeling around. They would then be able to visually present this data in terms of communications priorities and planning as well.
This is a system modeled around my usage. I'm thinking about doing one that includes ALL of my primary media usages, not just social media—the planet rings in non-social media would relate to how that media was shared and with whom. It seems to me that this kind of modeling could really help guide a brand in decision making as to media and creative strategies, tones and types.
Since I've built this upon the inspiration of David, and since I'd love to see what other people do with this model, I'm posting the Illustrator source file as well.
Social Systems
Twitter + Your "Far Outer Circle"
After our conversation I looked over David's diagrams and posts again, and decided to create a usage map template using myself as a guinea pig. The idea behind the hybrid model is that an experience designer or planner could build out a model for each person/profile that they were modeling around. They would then be able to visually present this data in terms of communications priorities and planning as well.
This is a system modeled around my usage. I'm thinking about doing one that includes ALL of my primary media usages, not just social media—the planet rings in non-social media would relate to how that media was shared and with whom. It seems to me that this kind of modeling could really help guide a brand in decision making as to media and creative strategies, tones and types.
Since I've built this upon the inspiration of David, and since I'd love to see what other people do with this model, I'm posting the Illustrator source file as well.
A few reminders to brands:
- In the long run, you are nothing if you don't produce something of value.
- People other than yourselves have to think what you provide is of value. Just because they consume it doesn't mean that it is valued.
- This isn't just applicable to your products, but to the rest of that which you produce: Content, Marketing, Interactions and Responses as well.
- If you want to know if something is valued, listen and/or ask.
Thanks to Tim Brunelle, via Gavin Heaton, via Drew McLellan via Todd Andrik for digging up this Malcolm Gladwell talk from the 2004 TED conference. He's talking about Howard Moskowitz's learnings on consumer preferences.
The thing I really find interesting about all of this is the idea that segmenting potential consumers into multiple groups and working to please each group separately. When applied to experience design, product design, engagement planning, or design & strategy of just about any type, this thinking throws quite a twist into how planning currently proceeds within so much of the business. For example, when planning the IA for a corporate website we tend to strive towards a single sitemap, when we should probably be striving either towards 3 - 5 OR providing for dynamic self-segmentation. The problem with the standard solution set of "section 1 is for purchasing", "section two is for browsing" etc...is that purchasers and browsers exist within each segment and segments are likely to have different requirements for each task. Separating sections by product doesn't do much better, as flavors of products (even colors) are likely to have specific types of people that are most attracted to them.
The more I think about it, the more I think that distributed media is perhaps the real solution to the application of this thinking to the communications space. Just as it doesn't make sense to try and make one coffee for all consumers, it doesn't make sense to make one website or ad campaign or one "integrated" campaign for all consumers. You'll likely end up making people "60% happy".
Why not make many different pieces and aim at making people "78% happy"?
The thing I really find interesting about all of this is the idea that segmenting potential consumers into multiple groups and working to please each group separately. When applied to experience design, product design, engagement planning, or design & strategy of just about any type, this thinking throws quite a twist into how planning currently proceeds within so much of the business. For example, when planning the IA for a corporate website we tend to strive towards a single sitemap, when we should probably be striving either towards 3 - 5 OR providing for dynamic self-segmentation. The problem with the standard solution set of "section 1 is for purchasing", "section two is for browsing" etc...is that purchasers and browsers exist within each segment and segments are likely to have different requirements for each task. Separating sections by product doesn't do much better, as flavors of products (even colors) are likely to have specific types of people that are most attracted to them.
The more I think about it, the more I think that distributed media is perhaps the real solution to the application of this thinking to the communications space. Just as it doesn't make sense to try and make one coffee for all consumers, it doesn't make sense to make one website or ad campaign or one "integrated" campaign for all consumers. You'll likely end up making people "60% happy".
Why not make many different pieces and aim at making people "78% happy"?
Thanks to aaron for passing along this presentation by Leah Hall of Adaptive Path.
Good stuff here, lots of things that you might already know, but a great consolidation and reminder about how to focus your UX/Experience Design chops.
Good stuff here, lots of things that you might already know, but a great consolidation and reminder about how to focus your UX/Experience Design chops.
